Qizilqum 1–1 Kokand-1912: Result & Stats

Qizilqum

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kokand-1912

T. Abdukholikov 61'

I. Vahobov 48'

11/2/2022

Super League · Round 24Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Qizilqum44%

×Draw27%

Kokand-191229%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QizilqumExpected goals in this matchKokand-1912

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.05

Qizilqum

1.38

Kokand-1912

1.05

Qizilqum creates 31% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 72 away

1.18

creates per match

0.88

1.23

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Qizilqum

1.18

Kokand-1912

0.88

allows per match

Qizilqum

1.23

Kokand-1912

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qizilqum+0.00on par

Kokand-1912+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qizilqum ↓

Kokand-1912 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Qizilqum or draw

71%

Qizilqum or Kokand-1912

73%

Draw or Kokand-1912

56%

Winning margin

Qizilqum wins by 2+

21%

Kokand-1912 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Qizilqum 1+ goals

75%

Qizilqum 2+ goals

40%

Qizilqum 3+ goals

16%

Kokand-1912 1+ goals

65%

Kokand-1912 2+ goals

28%

Kokand-1912 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Qizilqum (draw refunded)

61%

Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qizilqum at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 98 matches

Kokand-1912 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qizilqum attack 1.18 + Kokand-1912 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kokand-1912 attack 0.88 + Qizilqum defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Qizilqum scores more

44%

level

27%

Kokand-1912 scores more

29%

Qizilqum at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Qizilqum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

A. Stanisavljevic

46'

P. Komolafe← S. Djuraev

48'

I. Vahobov

53'

S. Etovkuziev

58'

D. Anvarov← A. Usmanov

58'

O. Zoteev← S. Mustafoyev

61'

T. Abdukholikov

63'

D. Rakhmatullaev← S. Norbekov

75'

D. Juraev

82'

B. Toshmirzaev← D. Khasanov

86'

A. Merzlyakov← A. Sidorov

90+2'

M. Khalmukhamedov

90+3'

A. StanisavljevicGoal Disallowed

Qizilqum

Kokand-1912

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: N. Lazarevic

46'▲P. Komolafe←▼S. Djuraev

58'▲D. Anvarov←▼A. Usmanov

58'▲O. Zoteev←▼S. Mustafoyev

Qizilqum substitutes

KomolafeAnvarovZoteevAbdurashidovBekmurodovNesterovAbdualimovAbduholiqovTuropov

63'▲D. Rakhmatullaev←▼S. Norbekov

82'▲B. Toshmirzaev←▼D. Khasanov

86'▲A. Merzlyakov←▼A. Sidorov

Kokand-1912 substitutes

RakhmatullaevToshmirzaevMerzlyakovHojimirzaevAbdullayevKomilovAzimovLukić