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Kokand-1912 vs Qizilqum — Super League 2026

Kokand-1912
Kokand-1912
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Qizilqum
Qizilqumadvanced
12/5/2023Super LeagueSuper League · FinalMarkaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Kokand-191248%
×Draw27%
Qizilqum26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kokand-1912
1.43
Qizilqum
0.97

Kokand-1912 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 100 away

creates per match

Kokand-1912
1.30
Qizilqum
0.73

allows per match

Kokand-1912
1.22
Qizilqum
1.55

finishing

Kokand-1912+0.00on par
Qizilqum+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kokand-1912 ↓

Qizilqum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kokand-1912 or draw
74%
Kokand-1912 or Qizilqum
73%
Draw or Qizilqum
52%

Winning margin

Kokand-1912 wins by 2+
23%
Qizilqum wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kokand-1912 1+ goals
76%
Kokand-1912 2+ goals
42%
Kokand-1912 3+ goals
17%
Qizilqum 1+ goals
62%
Qizilqum 2+ goals
25%
Qizilqum 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)
65%
Qizilqum (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kokand-1912 at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.22 · 73 matches

Qizilqum away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kokand-1912 attack 1.30 + Qizilqum defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Qizilqum attack 0.73 + Kokand-1912 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kokand-1912 scores more
48%
level
27%
Qizilqum scores more
26%

Kokand-1912 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kokand-1912 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kokand-1912 1–2 Qizilqum

Qizilqum beat Kokand-1912 2-1 in Super League on December 5, 2023.

The match was played at Markaziy Stadion in Kokand.