Qizilqum 1–0 Bunyodkor: Result & Stats

Qizilqum

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bunyodkor

M. G'iyosov 57'

8/2/2024

Super League · Round 14Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Qizilqum36%

×Draw27%

Bunyodkor37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QizilqumExpected goals in this matchBunyodkor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.26

Qizilqum

1.25

Bunyodkor

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 100 away

1.17

creates per match

1.29

1.23

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Qizilqum

1.17

Bunyodkor

1.29

allows per match

Qizilqum

1.23

Bunyodkor

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qizilqum+0.00on par

Bunyodkor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qizilqum ↓

Bunyodkor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Qizilqum or draw

63%

Qizilqum or Bunyodkor

73%

Draw or Bunyodkor

64%

Winning margin

Qizilqum wins by 2+

16%

Bunyodkor wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Qizilqum 1+ goals

71%

Qizilqum 2+ goals

36%

Qizilqum 3+ goals

13%

Bunyodkor 1+ goals

72%

Bunyodkor 2+ goals

36%

Bunyodkor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Qizilqum (draw refunded)

50%

Bunyodkor (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qizilqum at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.23 · 99 matches

Bunyodkor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.34 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qizilqum attack 1.17 + Bunyodkor defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bunyodkor attack 1.29 + Qizilqum defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Qizilqum scores more

36%

level

27%

Bunyodkor scores more

37%

Bunyodkor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bunyodkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

M. G'iyosov

64'

N. Normurodov← S. Jorabekov

64'

T. Abdukholikov← A. Filipović

64'

U. Ismonaliyev← A. Muqimjonov

70'

R. Yuldashev← F. Čirjak

72'

M. Mirakhmadov← L. Kaçorri

74'

A. Usmanov

78'

S. Rahmatullayev← G. Kukhianidze

81'

S. Shukurullayev← F. Kambarov

88'

D. Anvarov← A. Shulaia

88'

I. Vahobov← M. Giyosov

Qizilqum

Bunyodkor

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

G'iyosov

Lobjanidz

Manager: J. Saidov

78'▲S. Rahmatullayev←▼G. Kukhianidze

81'▲S. Shukurullayev←▼F. Kambarov

88'▲D. Anvarov←▼A. Shulaia

88'▲I. Vahobov←▼M. Giyosov

Qizilqum substitutes

RahmatullayevShukurullayevAnvarovVahobovTursunovRakhmatilloyevJumankuzievAbdualimovSayyotov

Manager: S. Arslanov

64'▲N. Normurodov←▼S. Jorabekov

64'▲T. Abdukholikov←▼A. Filipović

64'▲U. Ismonaliyev←▼A. Muqimjonov

70'▲R. Yuldashev←▼F. Čirjak

72'▲M. Mirakhmadov←▼L. Kaçorri

Bunyodkor substitutes

NormurodovAbdukholikovIsmonaliyevYuldashevMirakhmadovKarimovTo'raqulovTupliyevKarimov