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Qizilqum vs Andijan — Super League 2026

Qizilqum
Qizilqum
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Andijan
Andijan
11/9/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Qizilqum43%
×Draw27%
Andijan30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qizilqum
1.36
Andijan
1.08

Qizilqum creates 26% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 87 away

creates per match

Qizilqum
1.17
Andijan
0.94

allows per match

Qizilqum
1.23
Andijan
1.56

finishing

Qizilqum+0.00on par
Andijan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qizilqum ↓

Andijan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Qizilqum or draw
70%
Qizilqum or Andijan
73%
Draw or Andijan
57%

Winning margin

Qizilqum wins by 2+
20%
Andijan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Qizilqum 1+ goals
74%
Qizilqum 2+ goals
39%
Qizilqum 3+ goals
16%
Andijan 1+ goals
66%
Andijan 2+ goals
29%
Andijan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Qizilqum (draw refunded)
59%
Andijan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qizilqum at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.23 · 99 matches

Andijan away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.56 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qizilqum attack 1.17 + Andijan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Andijan attack 0.94 + Qizilqum defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Qizilqum scores more
43%
level
27%
Andijan scores more
30%

Qizilqum at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Qizilqum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Qizilqum 2–1 Andijan

Qizilqum beat Andijan 2-1 in Super League on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi in Navoiy.