Qingdao Youth Island 0–0 Yunnan Yukun

Qingdao Youth Island

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Yunnan Yukun

6/14/2025

Super League · Round 14Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Qingdao Youth Island50%

×Draw23%

Yunnan Yukun27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao Youth IslandExpected goals in this matchYunnan Yukun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.27

Qingdao Youth Island

1.83

Yunnan Yukun

1.27

Qingdao Youth Island creates 44% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

1.33

creates per match

1.09

1.46

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Qingdao Youth Island

1.33

Yunnan Yukun

1.09

allows per match

Qingdao Youth Island

1.46

Yunnan Yukun

2.33

+0.02on par

finishing

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

Qingdao Youth Island+0.02on par

Yunnan Yukun+0.44scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Youth Island ↓

Yunnan Yukun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Qingdao Youth Island or draw

73%

Qingdao Youth Island or Yunnan Yukun

77%

Draw or Yunnan Yukun

50%

Winning margin

Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+

28%

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals

84%

Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals

54%

Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals

28%

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals

72%

Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals

36%

Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)

65%

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Youth Island at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.46 · 20 matches

Yunnan Yukun away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.33 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.33 + Yunnan Yukun defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Yunnan Yukun attack 1.09 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Qingdao Youth Island scores more

50%

level

23%

Yunnan Yukun scores more

27%

Qingdao Youth Island at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Qingdao Youth Island will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Davidson

Qingdao Youth Island · M

8.0

Match Events

57'

Liuyu Duan

69'

He Longhai← Zhao Honglue

69'

X. Zhang← Duan Liuyu

75'

Ye Chugui← Han Zilong

78'

Peng Wang

81'

Nené

90+2'

Gao Di← Matheus Indio

90+2'

Zhang Chengdong← A. Yang

90+4'

Zhao Yuhao← A. Ionita II

90+4'

Zhang Yufeng← Nene

90+4'

Yin Congyao← H. Pedro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QingdaoYunnan

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots20

1.05Expected Goals (xG)0.73

8Corners9

10Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots20

1On Target5

8Off Target7

4Blocked8

9Inside Box11

4Outside Box9

Passing

53%Possession47%

293Total Passes268

212Accurate Passes179

72%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0