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Qingdao Youth Island vs Xinjiang Tianshan — League One 2018

Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
12/4/2022League OneLeague One · Round 33Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Qingdao Youth Island64%
×Draw22%
Xinjiang Tianshan15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Youth Island
1.88
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.77

Qingdao Youth Island creates 144% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 72 away

creates per match

Qingdao Youth Island
1.61
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.63

allows per match

Qingdao Youth Island
0.91
Xinjiang Tianshan
2.15

finishing

Qingdao Youth Island+0.00on par
Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Youth Island ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Qingdao Youth Island or draw
85%
Qingdao Youth Island or Xinjiang Tianshan
78%
Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan
36%

Winning margin

Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
38%
Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
85%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
56%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
29%
Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
54%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
18%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
81%
Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Youth Island at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.61 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.88

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Qingdao Youth Island scores more
64%
level
22%
Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
15%

Qingdao Youth Island at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Qingdao Youth Island will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qingdao Youth Island vs Xinjiang Tianshan

Qingdao Youth Island beat Xinjiang Tianshan 2-1 in League One on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1 in Tangshan.