Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng — FA Cup 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Qingdao Youth Island15%
Shandong Luneng68%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Shandong Luneng creates 135% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 20 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over66
- Under34
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Qingdao Youth Island ↓
Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Qingdao Youth Island at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches
Shandong Luneng away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.40 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.02
Shandong Luneng attack 3.00 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.40
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 68%?"
Shandong Luneng at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 68% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetingsQingdao Youth Island host Shandong Luneng on Wednesday, 17 July 2024 at 10:00. The match is part of the FA Cup 2026/2027 season.
Qingdao Youth Island 0 – 4 Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng beat Qingdao Youth Island 4-0 in FA Cup on July 17, 2024.
Goals: Chen Pu (31', 78'), Merdanjan Abduklim (51' o.g.), Cryzan (84').
The match was played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium in Qingdao.