Qingdao Youth Island 0–1 Shaanxi Changan Athletic

Qingdao Youth Island

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

7/23/2022

League One · Round 10Jiangsu Jiangning Football Training Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Qingdao Youth Island40%

×Draw27%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao Youth IslandExpected goals in this matchShaanxi Changan Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.17

Qingdao Youth Island

1.33

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.17

Qingdao Youth Island creates 14% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 57 away

1.61

creates per match

1.42

0.91

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Qingdao Youth Island

1.61

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.42

allows per match

Qingdao Youth Island

0.91

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qingdao Youth Island+0.00on par

Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Youth Island ↓

Shaanxi Changan Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Qingdao Youth Island or draw

67%

Qingdao Youth Island or Shaanxi Changan Athletic

73%

Draw or Shaanxi Changan Athletic

60%

Winning margin

Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+

18%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals

74%

Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals

38%

Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals

15%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals

69%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals

33%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)

55%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Youth Island at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.61 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.33

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.42 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Qingdao Youth Island scores more

40%

level

27%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more

33%

Qingdao Youth Island at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Qingdao Youth Island will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff