Qingdao Red Lions 0–5 Shandong Luneng

Qingdao Red Lions

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Shandong Luneng

Liu Yang 85'

Lu Yongtao 79'

Cryzan 58', 12'

Chen Pu 38'

5/21/2025

FA Cup · 3rd RoundQingdao Tiantai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Qingdao Red Lions7%

×Draw14%

Shandong Luneng79%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao Red LionsExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.57

2.50

Qingdao Red Lions

0.57

Shandong Luneng

2.50

Shandong Luneng creates 339% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 20 away

0.50

creates per match

3.00

2.00

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Qingdao Red Lions

0.50

Shandong Luneng

3.00

allows per match

Qingdao Red Lions

2.00

Shandong Luneng

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Red Lions ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0–05%

0–112%

0–215%

0–312%

0–48%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Qingdao Red Lions or draw

21%

Qingdao Red Lions or Shandong Luneng

86%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

93%

Winning margin

Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

57%

Team goals

Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals

43%

Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals

11%

Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

92%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

71%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Red Lions at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Red Lions attack 0.50 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.57

Shandong Luneng attack 3.00 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 79%?"

Qingdao Red Lions scores more

level

14%

Shandong Luneng scores more

79%

Shandong Luneng at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

38'

58'

79'

85'

Qingdao

Shandong

⚽

⚽2

⚽

Manager: Francisco Miguel Meireles Von-Doellinger Castro

Qingdao Red Lions substitutes

5Pujin13Yuan29Xiaoqi36Kaiwen27Kaidi40Ziyang11Xipeng16Yixuan19Lihao20Aoshuang21Yi43Muze

Manager: Kang-Hee Choi

Shandong Luneng substitutes

30Abudulam35Zhengyu59Shuaijun36Guobao18Yongtao28Mijit1Jinyong3Jinhao5Zheng21Binbin27Ke33Zhunyi

FA Cup: Qingdao Red Lions 0–5 Shandong Luneng

Shandong Luneng beat Qingdao Red Lions 5-0 in FA Cup on May 21, 2025.

Goals: Cryzan (12', 58'), Chen Pu (38'), Lu Yongtao (79'), Liu Yang (85').

The match was played at Qingdao Tiantai Stadium in Qingdao.

Qingdao Red Lions vs Shandong Luneng — FA Cup 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Qingdao Red Lions 0–5 Shandong Luneng