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Qingdao Red Lions vs Jinan Xingzhou — League Two 2022

Qingdao Red Lions
Qingdao Red Lions
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
7/26/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 5Dalian Puwan Outfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Qingdao Red Lions27%
×Draw29%
Jinan Xingzhou44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Red Lions
0.88
Jinan Xingzhou
1.21

Jinan Xingzhou creates 38% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 7 away

creates per match

Qingdao Red Lions
1.04
Jinan Xingzhou
1.57

allows per match

Qingdao Red Lions
0.85
Jinan Xingzhou
0.71

finishing

Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par
Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Red Lions ↓

Jinan Xingzhou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Qingdao Red Lions or draw
56%
Qingdao Red Lions or Jinan Xingzhou
71%
Draw or Jinan Xingzhou
73%

Winning margin

Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+
9%
Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals
59%
Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals
22%
Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals
6%
Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
70%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
34%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)
38%
Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Red Lions at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

Jinan Xingzhou away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Red Lions attack 1.04 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.88

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.57 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Qingdao Red Lions scores more
27%
level
29%
Jinan Xingzhou scores more
44%

Jinan Xingzhou at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Qingdao Red Lions 0–2 Jinan Xingzhou

Jinan Xingzhou beat Qingdao Red Lions 2-0 in League Two on July 26, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Puwan Outfield in Dalian.