Qingdao Red Lions 1–1 Guangxi Baoyun

Qingdao Red Lions

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Guangxi Baoyun

Sun Xipeng 12'

M. Cheukoua 45' (pen)

10/12/2025

League One · Round 26Qingdao Tiantai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Qingdao Red Lions35%

×Draw27%

Guangxi Baoyun37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao Red LionsExpected goals in this matchGuangxi Baoyun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.26

Qingdao Red Lions

1.22

Guangxi Baoyun

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 22 away

0.80

creates per match

0.86

1.67

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Qingdao Red Lions

0.80

Guangxi Baoyun

0.86

allows per match

Qingdao Red Lions

1.67

Guangxi Baoyun

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par

Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Red Lions ↓

Guangxi Baoyun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Qingdao Red Lions or draw

63%

Qingdao Red Lions or Guangxi Baoyun

73%

Draw or Guangxi Baoyun

65%

Winning margin

Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+

15%

Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals

70%

Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals

34%

Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals

12%

Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals

72%

Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals

36%

Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)

49%

Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Red Lions at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Guangxi Baoyun away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Red Lions attack 0.80 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.22

Guangxi Baoyun attack 0.86 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Qingdao Red Lions scores more

35%

level

27%

Guangxi Baoyun scores more

37%

Guangxi Baoyun at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guangxi Baoyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Sun Xipeng↳ Leandro Alves

45'

M. CheukouaPenalty

46'

K. Lu← Shi Zhe

46'

Fan Chao← Hu Jiajin

62'

Song Runtong← Yao Xuchen

71'

Feng Yifan← Liu Hao

85'

Yang Jingfan← Fu Shang

90+6'

You Wenjie

Qingdao

Guangxi

13

35

5

34

36

32

19

11

▼

Hao

29

▼

Shang

8

▼

Jiajin

43

⚽

32

2

16

25

33

▼

Zhe

10

A

Alves

20

Aoshuang

7

Nobrega

39

▼

Xuchen

11

⚽

Xipeng

44

Junhao

Manager: Xiao Wang

46'▲K. Lu←▼Shi Zhe

62'▲Song Runtong←▼Yao Xuchen

Qingdao Red Lions substitutes

18Ya'nan1Quan8Xiaochen5Pujin23Liang4Chengle6Haokun36Lu40Ziyang30Jianyi24Runtong

Manager: Koji Maeda

46'▲Fan Chao←▼Hu Jiajin

71'▲Feng Yifan←▼Liu Hao

85'▲Yang Jingfan←▼Fu Shang

Guangxi Baoyun substitutes

1Yanhan28Shaohao33Quancheng4Yifan20Zhengjie27Guoren39Chenghe17Jingfan16Zili25Shihao44Chao38Wei