Qingdao Jonoon 4–2 Zibo Cuju: Result & Stats

Qingdao Jonoon

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Zibo Cuju

7/24/2022

League One · Round 10Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Qingdao Jonoon60%

×Draw22%

Zibo Cuju18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao JonoonExpected goals in this matchZibo Cuju

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.94

Qingdao Jonoon

1.92

Zibo Cuju

0.94

Qingdao Jonoon creates 104% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

2.12

creates per match

1.06

0.82

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Qingdao Jonoon

2.12

Zibo Cuju

1.06

allows per match

Qingdao Jonoon

0.82

Zibo Cuju

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qingdao Jonoon+0.00on par

Zibo Cuju+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Jonoon ↓

Zibo Cuju →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Qingdao Jonoon or draw

82%

Qingdao Jonoon or Zibo Cuju

78%

Draw or Zibo Cuju

40%

Winning margin

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

36%

Zibo Cuju wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

85%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

57%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

30%

Zibo Cuju 1+ goals

61%

Zibo Cuju 2+ goals

24%

Zibo Cuju 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

77%

Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Jonoon at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Zibo Cuju away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Jonoon attack 2.12 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.92

Zibo Cuju attack 1.06 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

60%

level

22%

Zibo Cuju scores more

18%

Qingdao Jonoon at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Qingdao Jonoon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff