Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda

Qingdao Jonoon

Preview

09:30

Tianjin Teda

7/25/2026

Super League · Round 20Qingdao Youth Football Stadium

Big match

46%

Qingdao Jonoon

model favours

46%24%31%

Qingdao Jonoon score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

60%

over 2.5 goals

61%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Qingdao Jonoon46%

×Draw24%

Tianjin Teda31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao JonoonExpected goals in this matchTianjin Teda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.38

Qingdao Jonoon

1.72

Tianjin Teda

1.38

Qingdao Jonoon creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 34 away

1.44

creates per match

1.14

1.63

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Qingdao Jonoon

1.44

Tianjin Teda

1.14

allows per match

Qingdao Jonoon

1.63

Tianjin Teda

2.01

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Qingdao Jonoon-0.11scores less

Tianjin Teda+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Jonoon ↓

Tianjin Teda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Qingdao Jonoon or draw

69%

Qingdao Jonoon or Tianjin Teda

76%

Draw or Tianjin Teda

54%

Winning margin

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

24%

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

82%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

51%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

25%

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals

75%

Tianjin Teda 2+ goals

40%

Tianjin Teda 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

60%

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Jonoon at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.01 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.44 + Tianjin Teda defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.72

Tianjin Teda attack 1.14 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

46%

level

24%

Tianjin Teda scores more

31%

Qingdao Jonoon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Qingdao Jonoon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Tianjin Teda score first in only 25% of matches
Both teams score in 80% of Qingdao Jonoon’s matches
67% of Qingdao Jonoon’s matches go over 2.5 goals
67% of Tianjin Teda’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
43% of Qingdao Jonoon’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Qingdao Jonoon

Balanced

Tianjin Teda

Balanced

46%Possession49%

78%Pass accuracy78%

12.3Shots11.5

1.23xGBiggest gap1.39

Qingdao JonoonTianjin Teda

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

2

Qingdao Jonoon

1

Draws

4

Tianjin Teda

Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 57%

1–12–00–10–13–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Jonoon

LLLDW

Teda

WWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff