Qingdao Jonoon 4–1 Shandong Luneng: Result & Stats

Qingdao Jonoon

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Shandong Luneng

A. El Messaoudi 90'

Jin Yonghao 80'

M. Edjouma 36'

Lin Chuangyi 9'

Cryzan 90'

4/26/2026

Super League · Round 8Qingdao Youth Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Qingdao Jonoon35%

×Draw23%

Shandong Luneng42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao JonoonExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.70

Qingdao Jonoon

1.54

Shandong Luneng

1.70

Shandong Luneng creates 10% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

1.44

creates per match

1.77

1.63

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Qingdao Jonoon

1.44

Shandong Luneng

1.77

allows per match

Qingdao Jonoon

1.63

Shandong Luneng

1.65

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Qingdao Jonoon-0.13scores less

Shandong Luneng-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Jonoon ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Qingdao Jonoon or draw

58%

Qingdao Jonoon or Shandong Luneng

77%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

65%

Winning margin

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

17%

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

79%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

45%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

20%

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

82%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

51%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

46%

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Jonoon at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.63 · 29 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.65 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.44 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.54

Shandong Luneng attack 1.77 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

35%

level

23%

Shandong Luneng scores more

42%

Shandong Luneng at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. El Messaoudi

Qingdao Jonoon · M

8.7

Match Events

9'

Lin Chuangyi↳ Song Wenjie

31'

Song Wenjie

36'

M. Edjouma

46'

Liu Junshuai← N. Andjelkovic

46'

Chen Pu← Guilherme Madruga

53'

Jin Yonghao← Lin Chuangyi

53'

C. Strandberg← Song Wenjie

62'

Cryzan← Chen Zeshi

63'

Malcom Edjouma

68'

Peng Xiao

80'

Jin Yonghao↳ Y. Yeboah

82'

J. Lu← V. Qazaishvili

82'

Wang Tong← Xie Wenneng

84'

Sun Zheng'ao← Luo Senwen

86'

Song Long← Li Suda

89'

Pengfei Mu

90+2'

Yin Jiaxi

90+2'

Yin Jiaxi← Y. Li

90'

Cryzan↳ Chen Pu

90'

A. El Messaoudi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QingdaoShandong

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots14

2.63Expected Goals (xG)1.87

4Corners6

10Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots14

5On Target6

6Off Target4

1Blocked4

9Inside Box5

3Outside Box9

Passing

43%Possession57%

324Total Passes428

242Accurate Passes341

75%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3