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Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City — Super League 2026

Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
4/12/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Qingdao Youth Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Qingdao Jonoon33%
×Draw23%
Chengdu Better City44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Jonoon
1.45
Chengdu Better City
1.72

Chengdu Better City creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Qingdao Jonoon
1.54
Chengdu Better City
1.60

allows per match

Qingdao Jonoon
1.83
Chengdu Better City
1.36

finishing

Qingdao Jonoon-0.43scores less
Chengdu Better City+0.90scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Jonoon ↓

Chengdu Better City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Qingdao Jonoon or draw
56%
Qingdao Jonoon or Chengdu Better City
77%
Draw or Chengdu Better City
67%

Winning margin

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+
15%
Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals
77%
Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals
42%
Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals
18%
Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
82%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
51%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)
43%
Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Jonoon at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.83 · 9 matches

Chengdu Better City away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.54 + Chengdu Better City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.45

Chengdu Better City attack 1.60 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Qingdao Jonoon scores more
33%
level
23%
Chengdu Better City scores more
44%

Chengdu Better City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City

Chengdu Better City beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 in Super League on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Qingdao.