Qingdao Huanghai 0–0 Xinjiang Tianshan

Qingdao Huanghai

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Xinjiang Tianshan

3/30/2019

League One · Round 3Conson Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai67%

×Draw19%

Xinjiang Tianshan14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao HuanghaiExpected goals in this matchXinjiang Tianshan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.84

Qingdao Huanghai

2.15

Xinjiang Tianshan

0.84

Qingdao Huanghai creates 156% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 72 away

2.15

creates per match

0.63

1.06

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai

2.15

Xinjiang Tianshan

0.63

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai

1.06

Xinjiang Tianshan

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw

86%

Qingdao Huanghai or Xinjiang Tianshan

81%

Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan

33%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+

43%

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals

88%

Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals

63%

Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals

36%

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals

57%

Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals

21%

Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)

83%

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 2.15 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.15

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more

67%

level

19%

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more

14%

Qingdao Huanghai at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Qingdao Huanghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Wang Fei← Yu Yang

45'

Stefano

46'

Huang Long← Ermek Talaphan

63'

Musajan Danyar← Dilxat Ablimit

73'

Abdusalam Sabit← Mirzaekber Alimjan

75'

Liu Long← Yao Jiangshan

89'

Ezimet Memetabdulla← Yaki Yan

Qingdao

Xinjiang

12

4

6

22

5

▼

Alimjan

28

▼

16

9

20

11

17

▼

Talaphan

22

Shi

4

▼

16

10

6

7

37

▼

Jiangshan

11

Bari

33

Zhe

25

▼

Yang

34

Té

Manager: Jordi Vinyals

30'▲Wang Fei←▼Yu Yang

75'▲Liu Long←▼Yao Jiangshan

89'▲Ezimet Memetabdulla←▼Yaki Yan

Qingdao Huanghai substitutes

20Fei17Long30Memetabdulla1Yu3Hanchen5Jiaqi23Jiashen

Manager: Fernando

46'▲Huang Long←▼Ermek Talaphan

63'▲Musajan Danyar←▼Dilxat Ablimit

73'▲Abdusalam Sabit←▼Mirzaekber Alimjan

Xinjiang Tianshan substitutes

8Long37Danyar10Sabit2Tursun3Ekremjan7Yalqun24Runshan

Match Recap: Qingdao Huanghai vs Xinjiang Tianshan

Qingdao Huanghai and Xinjiang Tianshan drew 0-0 in League One on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Conson Stadium in Qingdao.

Qingdao Huanghai vs Xinjiang Tianshan — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Qingdao Huanghai vs Xinjiang Tianshan