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Qingdao Huanghai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — Super League 2018

Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FCadvanced
11/6/2020Super LeagueSuper League · 13th Place FinalDalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai37%
×Draw24%
Shenzhen Ruby FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Huanghai
1.48
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 67 away

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai
0.71
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.03

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai
2.05
Shenzhen Ruby FC
2.25

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw
61%
Qingdao Huanghai or Shenzhen Ruby FC
76%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
63%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
17%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
77%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
43%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
19%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
79%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
45%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
48%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.71 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more
37%
level
24%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
39%

Shenzhen Ruby FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shenzhen Ruby FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Qingdao Huanghai 0–2 Shenzhen Ruby FC

Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Qingdao Huanghai 2-0 in Super League on November 6, 2020.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.