Qingdao Huanghai 0–5 Shandong Luneng

Qingdao Huanghai

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Shandong Luneng

8/2/2021

Super League · Round 11Huadu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai21%

×Draw22%

Shandong Luneng57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao HuanghaiExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.91

Qingdao Huanghai

1.07

Shandong Luneng

1.91

Shandong Luneng creates 79% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 122 away

0.71

creates per match

1.77

2.05

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai

0.71

Shandong Luneng

1.77

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai

2.05

Shandong Luneng

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw

43%

Qingdao Huanghai or Shandong Luneng

78%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

79%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+

8%

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals

66%

Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals

29%

Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals

9%

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

85%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

57%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)

27%

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.44 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.71 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.07

Shandong Luneng attack 1.77 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more

21%

level

22%

Shandong Luneng scores more

57%

Shandong Luneng at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff