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Qingdao Huanghai vs Shaanxi Changan Athletic — League One 2018

Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
7/13/2019League OneLeague One · Round 17Conson Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai46%
×Draw25%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Huanghai
1.60
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.24

Qingdao Huanghai creates 29% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 57 away

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai
2.15
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.42

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai
1.06
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.05

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par
Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Shaanxi Changan Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw
70%
Qingdao Huanghai or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
75%
Draw or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
54%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
23%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
80%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
47%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
22%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals
71%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals
35%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
61%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 2.15 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.60

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.42 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more
46%
level
25%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more
30%

Qingdao Huanghai at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Qingdao Huanghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qingdao Huanghai vs Shaanxi Changan Athletic

Qingdao Huanghai and Shaanxi Changan Athletic drew 0-0 in League One on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at Conson Stadium in Qingdao.