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Qingdao Huanghai vs Meizhou Kejia — League One 2018

Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
FT
1 – 2
Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
10/28/2017League OneLeague One · Round 30GuoXin Stadium (Qingdao)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai49%
×Draw23%
Meizhou Kejia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Huanghai
1.76
Meizhou Kejia
1.27

Qingdao Huanghai creates 39% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 63 away

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai
2.15
Meizhou Kejia
1.49

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai
1.06
Meizhou Kejia
1.38

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par
Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Meizhou Kejia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw
72%
Qingdao Huanghai or Meizhou Kejia
77%
Draw or Meizhou Kejia
51%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
26%
Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
83%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
52%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
26%
Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
72%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
36%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
64%
Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.38 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 2.15 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.76

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.49 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more
49%
level
23%
Meizhou Kejia scores more
28%

Qingdao Huanghai at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Qingdao Huanghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qingdao Huanghai vs Meizhou Kejia

Meizhou Kejia beat Qingdao Huanghai 2-1 in League One on October 28, 2017.

The match was played at GuoXin Stadium (Qingdao).