Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye — Super League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 21+ matches
Qingdao Huanghai27%
Henan Jianye48%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Henan Jianye creates 41% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 121 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Qingdao Huanghai ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches
Henan Jianye away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.51 · 121 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.71 + Henan Jianye defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.11
Henan Jianye attack 1.09 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.57
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Henan Jianye at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Shanghai SIPG
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Shandong Luneng
Beijing Guoan
Jiangsu Suning
Hebei Zhongji
Shanghai Shenhua
Beijing Renhe
Tianjin Songjiang
Guangzhou R&F
Dalian AerbinHenan Jianye
Chongqing Lifan
Tianjin Teda
Changchun Yatai
Guizhou ZhichengIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Qingdao Huanghai host Henan Jianye on Sunday, 8 August 2021 at 12:00. The match is part of the Super League 2018/2019 season.
Qingdao Huanghai 0 – 1 Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye beat Qingdao Huanghai 1-0 in Super League on August 8, 2021.
Goals: Henrique Dourado (24' pen).
Henan Jianye controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 2.
The match was played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium in Guangzhou.