Qingdao Huanghai 1–2 Hebei Zhongji: Result & Stats

Qingdao Huanghai

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hebei Zhongji

Zhu Jianrong 64'

S. Memišević 74'

J. Minala 28' (OG)

8/27/2020

Super League · Round 7Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai39%

×Draw24%

Hebei Zhongji37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao HuanghaiExpected goals in this matchHebei Zhongji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.49

Qingdao Huanghai

1.52

Hebei Zhongji

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 67 away

0.71

creates per match

0.94

2.05

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai

0.71

Hebei Zhongji

0.94

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai

2.05

Hebei Zhongji

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Hebei Zhongji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw

63%

Qingdao Huanghai or Hebei Zhongji

76%

Draw or Hebei Zhongji

61%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+

19%

Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals

78%

Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals

45%

Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals

20%

Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals

77%

Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals

44%

Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)

51%

Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

Hebei Zhongji away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.71 + Hebei Zhongji defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hebei Zhongji attack 0.94 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more

39%

level

24%

Hebei Zhongji scores more

37%

Qingdao Huanghai at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Qingdao Huanghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

S. Memišević

Hebei Zhongji · M

7.9

Match Events

28'

J. MinalaOwn goal

32'

Zhou Junchen← Memetabdulla Ezimet

46'

R. Alessandrini← Wang Fei

46'

Zhu Jianrong← Wang Jianwen

64'

Zhu Jianrong↳ R. Alessandrini

69'

Paulinho← M. Turay

74'

S. Memišević↳ Wang Qiuming

76'

Yang Yu← Yaki Yan

78'

83'

85'

90'

90'

90+4'

Bari Muhammateli← Gao Xiang

90+9'

Jiang Wenjun← Ding Haifeng

90+4'

Zhao Yuhao← Wang Qiuming

90+4'

Dong Xuesheng← Yin Hongbo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QingdaoHebei

Overview

35%Possession65%

13Total Shots12

3Corners2

15Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots12

3On Target5

9Off Target6

1Blocked1

9Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

35%Possession65%

267Total Passes506

196Accurate Passes443

73%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

0Offsides1