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Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown — League One 2018

Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
5/9/2018League OneLeague One · Round 10GuoXin Stadium (Qingdao)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai44%
×Draw24%
Hangzhou Greentown32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Huanghai
1.67
Hangzhou Greentown
1.38

Qingdao Huanghai creates 21% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 55 away

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai
2.21
Hangzhou Greentown
1.69

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai
1.06
Hangzhou Greentown
1.13

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par
Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw
68%
Qingdao Huanghai or Hangzhou Greentown
76%
Draw or Hangzhou Greentown
56%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
23%
Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
81%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
50%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
23%
Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
75%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
40%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
58%
Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.13 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 2.21 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.67

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.69 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more
44%
level
24%
Hangzhou Greentown scores more
32%

Qingdao Huanghai at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Qingdao Huanghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown

Hangzhou Greentown beat Qingdao Huanghai 4-1 in League One on May 9, 2018.

The match was played at GuoXin Stadium (Qingdao).