Hangzhou Greentown 1–2 Qingdao Huanghai

Hangzhou Greentown

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Qingdao Huanghai

3/10/2019

League One · Round 1Yellow Dragon Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown45%

×Draw23%

Qingdao Huanghai32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hangzhou GreentownExpected goals in this matchQingdao Huanghai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.44

Hangzhou Greentown

1.75

Qingdao Huanghai

1.44

Hangzhou Greentown creates 22% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 31 away

1.89

creates per match

1.84

1.04

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown

1.89

Qingdao Huanghai

1.84

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown

1.04

Qingdao Huanghai

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

Qingdao Huanghai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw

68%

Hangzhou Greentown or Qingdao Huanghai

77%

Draw or Qingdao Huanghai

55%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

24%

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

83%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

52%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

25%

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals

76%

Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals

42%

Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

59%

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.04 · 54 matches

Qingdao Huanghai away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.89 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.75

Qingdao Huanghai attack 1.84 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

45%

level

23%

Qingdao Huanghai scores more

32%

Hangzhou Greentown at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff