Qingdao Huanghai 2–1 Guizhou Zhicheng

Qingdao Huanghai

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Guizhou Zhicheng

4/13/2019

League One · Round 5Conson Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai54%

×Draw24%

Guizhou Zhicheng23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao HuanghaiExpected goals in this matchGuizhou Zhicheng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.06

Qingdao Huanghai

1.76

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.06

Qingdao Huanghai creates 66% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 41 away

2.15

creates per match

1.05

1.06

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai

2.15

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.05

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai

1.06

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw

77%

Qingdao Huanghai or Guizhou Zhicheng

76%

Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng

46%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+

30%

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals

83%

Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals

52%

Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals

26%

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

65%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

29%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)

70%

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 2.15 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.76

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.05 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more

54%

level

24%

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

23%

Qingdao Huanghai at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Qingdao Huanghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff