Qingdao Huanghai 0–0 Guangzhou R&F: Result & Stats

Qingdao Huanghai

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guangzhou R&F

10/19/2020

Super League · 9th-16th Place Play-offsJinzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai30%

×Draw25%

Guangzhou R&F45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao HuanghaiExpected goals in this matchGuangzhou R&F

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.60

Qingdao Huanghai

1.25

Guangzhou R&F

1.60

Guangzhou R&F creates 28% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 68 away

0.71

creates per match

1.15

2.05

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai

0.71

Guangzhou R&F

1.15

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai

2.05

Guangzhou R&F

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Guangzhou R&F →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw

55%

Qingdao Huanghai or Guangzhou R&F

75%

Draw or Guangzhou R&F

70%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+

13%

Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals

71%

Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals

36%

Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals

13%

Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals

80%

Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals

47%

Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)

40%

Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

Guangzhou R&F away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.71 + Guangzhou R&F defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.25

Guangzhou R&F attack 1.15 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more

30%

level

25%

Guangzhou R&F scores more

45%

Guangzhou R&F at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guangzhou R&F will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Tang Miao

Guangzhou R&F · D

7.5

Match Events

13'

Liu Jiashen

35'

Jianrong Zhu

65'

D. Radonjić← Zhu Jianrong

66'

Memetabdulla Ezimet← Wang Wei

66'

Wang Hao← D. Popovič

73'

Chang Feiya← Chen Zhechao

73'

Chen Zhizhao← Huang Zhengyu

79'

Shi Zhe← Zhou Junchen

80'

84'

86'

87'

87'

Song Wenjie← R. Zivkovic

87'

Wu Chengru← Zhang Gong

90+2'

Yao Jiangshan← R. Alessandrini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QingdaoGuangzhou

Overview

36%Possession64%

8Total Shots7

4Corners3

20Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots7

0On Target2

6Off Target3

2Blocked2

4Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

36%Possession64%

324Total Passes585

256Accurate Passes507

79%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

20Fouls14

4Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3