Qingdao Huanghai 1–2 Dalian Aerbin: Result & Stats

Qingdao Huanghai

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Dalian Aerbin

12/21/2021

Super League · Relegation Round - 4Kunshan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai31%

×Draw25%

Dalian Aerbin44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao HuanghaiExpected goals in this matchDalian Aerbin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.57

Qingdao Huanghai

1.28

Dalian Aerbin

1.57

Dalian Aerbin creates 23% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 84 away

0.71

creates per match

1.10

2.05

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai

0.71

Dalian Aerbin

1.10

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai

2.05

Dalian Aerbin

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Dalian Aerbin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw

56%

Qingdao Huanghai or Dalian Aerbin

75%

Draw or Dalian Aerbin

69%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+

13%

Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals

72%

Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals

37%

Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals

14%

Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals

79%

Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals

46%

Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)

41%

Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

Dalian Aerbin away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.85 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.71 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.28

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.10 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more

31%

level

25%

Dalian Aerbin scores more

44%

Dalian Aerbin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dalian Aerbin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff