Qatar 1–2 Zimbabwe: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Qatar

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Zimbabwe

Mohamed Gouda 9'

Bill Antonio 74'

Munashe Garananga 24'

11/17/2025

Friendlies · FriendliesAbdullah bin Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Qatar39%

×Draw27%

Zimbabwe33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QatarExpected goals in this matchZimbabwe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.15

Qatar

1.27

Zimbabwe

1.15

Qatar creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

0.90

1.40

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Qatar

1.33

Zimbabwe

0.90

allows per match

Qatar

1.40

Zimbabwe

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qatar+0.00on par

Zimbabwe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qatar ↓

Zimbabwe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Qatar or draw

67%

Qatar or Zimbabwe

73%

Draw or Zimbabwe

61%

Winning margin

Qatar wins by 2+

17%

Zimbabwe wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Qatar 1+ goals

72%

Qatar 2+ goals

36%

Qatar 3+ goals

14%

Zimbabwe 1+ goals

68%

Zimbabwe 2+ goals

32%

Zimbabwe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Qatar (draw refunded)

54%

Zimbabwe (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qatar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.40 · 30 matches

Zimbabwe away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qatar attack 1.33 + Zimbabwe defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Zimbabwe attack 0.90 + Qatar defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Qatar scores more

39%

level

27%

Zimbabwe scores more

33%

Qatar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Qatar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Munashe Garananga

Zimbabwe · D

7.7

Match Events

9'

Mohamed Gouda↳ Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam

24'

Munashe Garananga↳ Godknows Murwira

39'

Marvelous Nakamba

46'

Tahsin Mohammed← Mostafa Mashaal

46'

Ahmed Fathy← Assim Madibo

46'

Lucas Mendes← Yousef Ayman

46'

Ahmed Suhail← Ayoub Al Oui

46'

Mohammed Waad← Homam Ahmed

46'

Tarek Salman← Al-Hashmi Al-Hussain

46'

Mahmud Abunad← Meshaal Aissa Barsham

46'

Prosper Padera← Prince Dube

62'

Mohamed Naceur Almanai← Khaled Mohammed

63'

Sultan Al Brake← Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam

63'

Mohammed Muntari← Ahmed Alaaeldin

63'

Gerald Takwara← Teenage Hadebe

63'

Bill Antonio← Sean Fusire

74'

Bill Antonio↳ Prosper Padera

80'

Yusuf Abdurisag← Mohamed Gouda

86'

Daniel Msendami← Daniel Msendami

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QatarZimbabwe

Overview

69%Possession31%

8Total Shots7

6Corners6

8Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots7

5On Target3

2Off Target3

1Blocked1

6Inside Box6

2Outside Box1

Passing

69%Possession31%

571Total Passes246

505Accurate Passes172

88%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1