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Qatar vs Switzerland — World Cup 2026

Qatar
Qatar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Switzerland
Switzerland
M. Muheim 90' (OG)
B. Embolo 17' (pen)
6/13/2026World CupWorld Cup · Group Stage - 1Levi's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Qatar31%
×Draw25%
Switzerland44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qatar
1.27
Switzerland
1.57

Switzerland creates 24% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Qatar
0.67
Switzerland
1.14

allows per match

Qatar
2.00
Switzerland
1.86

finishing

Qatar+0.00on par
Switzerland+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qatar ↓

Switzerland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Qatar or draw
56%
Qatar or Switzerland
75%
Draw or Switzerland
69%

Winning margin

Qatar wins by 2+
13%
Switzerland wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Qatar 1+ goals
72%
Qatar 2+ goals
36%
Qatar 3+ goals
14%
Switzerland 1+ goals
79%
Switzerland 2+ goals
46%
Switzerland 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Qatar (draw refunded)
41%
Switzerland (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qatar at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Switzerland away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qatar attack 0.67 + Switzerland defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.27

Switzerland attack 1.14 + Qatar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Qatar scores more
31%
level
25%
Switzerland scores more
44%

Switzerland at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Switzerland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
R. VargasSwitzerlandSwitzerland · F
7.9

Match Events

16'
Mahmud Abunada
16'
Remo FreulerPenalty confirmed
17'
B. EmboloPenalty
23'
Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam
42'
Denis Zakaria
60'
A. Fathi← A. Al Oui
60'
K. Boudiaf← J. Gaber
60'
A. Alaaeldin← Y. Abdurisag
65'
F. Rieder← M. Aebischer
65'
J. Manzambi← D. Ndoye
79'
M. Al Mannai← A. O. Madibo
79'
Z. Amdouni← R. Vargas
88'
H. Al Haydos← Edmilson Junior
89'
M. Muheim← R. Rodriguez
89'
A. Jashari← R. Freuler
90'
M. MuheimOwn goal

Possession

32%Qatar

Shots

6Qatar

Pass accuracy

44%Qatar

Statistics

QatarSwitzerland
Overview
32%Possession68%
6Total Shots26
0.60Expected Goals (xG)3.20
3Corners10
12Fouls11
Shots
6Total Shots26
3On Target7
3Off Target10
0Blocked9
4Inside Box18
2Outside Box8
Passing
32%Possession68%
278Total Passes576
200Accurate Passes527
72%Pass Accuracy91%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
-0.54Goals Prevented-0.54
Discipline
12Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

World Cup: Qatar 1–1 Switzerland

Qatar and Switzerland drew 1-1 in World Cup on June 13, 2026.

Goals: B. Embolo (17' pen), M. Muheim (90' o.g.).

Switzerland controlled possession (68%) and registered 26 shots to 6.

The match was played at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara.