Qatar 0–0 Slovenia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Qatar

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Slovenia

3/29/2022

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Education City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Qatar35%

×Draw27%

Slovenia38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QatarExpected goals in this matchSlovenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.28

Qatar

1.21

Slovenia

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 12 away

1.33

creates per match

1.17

1.40

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Qatar

1.33

Slovenia

1.17

allows per match

Qatar

1.40

Slovenia

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qatar+0.00on par

Slovenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qatar ↓

Slovenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Qatar or draw

62%

Qatar or Slovenia

73%

Draw or Slovenia

65%

Winning margin

Qatar wins by 2+

15%

Slovenia wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Qatar 1+ goals

70%

Qatar 2+ goals

34%

Qatar 3+ goals

12%

Slovenia 1+ goals

72%

Slovenia 2+ goals

37%

Slovenia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Qatar (draw refunded)

48%

Slovenia (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qatar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.40 · 30 matches

Slovenia away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qatar attack 1.33 + Slovenia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Slovenia attack 1.17 + Qatar defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Qatar scores more

35%

level

27%

Slovenia scores more

38%

Slovenia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Slovenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Jaka Bijol

46'

A. Čerin← S. Lovrić

46'

Ž. Karničnik← D. Brekalo

46'

Ž. Celar← L. Zahovič

60'

Homam Ahmed← Ismaeel Mohammad

61'

Assim Madibo← Naif Al Hadhrami

77'

Abdullah Abdulsalam← Karim Boudiaf

77'

Salem Al Hajri← Almoez Ali

77'

B. Verbič← B. Šeško

81'

J. Stankovič← M. Zajc

87'

Mosaab Khoder← Pedro Miguel Correia

87'

Khalid Muneer Mazeed← Mohammed Al Bayati

87'

T. Horvat← P. Stojanović

Possession

Shots

Statistics

QatarSlovenia

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots5

6Corners2

5Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots5

5On Target1

3Off Target4

Passing

43%Possession57%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls16

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2