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Qatar vs Lebanon — Asian Cup 2019

Qatar
Qatar
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lebanon
Lebanon
1/12/2024Asian CupAsian Cup · Group Stage - 1Lusail Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Qatar83%
×Draw14%
Lebanon3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qatar
2.25
Lebanon
0.25

Qatar creates 800% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Qatar
2.17
Lebanon
0.33

allows per match

Qatar
0.17
Lebanon
2.33

finishing

Qatar+0.00on par
Lebanon+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

80%No
  • No80
  • Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qatar ↓

Lebanon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–021%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–016%
3–14%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (21%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Qatar or draw
97%
Qatar or Lebanon
86%
Draw or Lebanon
17%

Winning margin

Qatar wins by 2+
59%
Lebanon wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Qatar 1+ goals
89%
Qatar 2+ goals
65%
Qatar 3+ goals
39%
Lebanon 1+ goals
22%
Lebanon 2+ goals
3%
Lebanon 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Qatar (draw refunded)
96%
Lebanon (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qatar at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

Lebanon away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qatar attack 2.17 + Lebanon defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.25

Lebanon attack 0.33 + Qatar defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Qatar scores more
83%
level
14%
Lebanon scores more
3%

Qatar at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Qatar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Asian Cup: Qatar 3–0 Lebanon

Qatar beat Lebanon 3-0 in Asian Cup on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at Lusail Stadium in Lusail.