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Qatar vs China — Asian Cup 2019

Qatar
Qatar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
China
China
1/22/2024Asian CupAsian Cup · Group Stage - 3Khalifa International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Qatar59%
×Draw26%
China14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qatar
1.48
China
0.58

Qatar creates 155% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Qatar
2.17
China
1.00

allows per match

Qatar
0.17
China
0.80

finishing

Qatar+0.00on par
China+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qatar ↓

China →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Qatar or draw
86%
Qatar or China
74%
Draw or China
41%

Winning margin

Qatar wins by 2+
31%
China wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Qatar 1+ goals
77%
Qatar 2+ goals
43%
Qatar 3+ goals
19%
China 1+ goals
44%
China 2+ goals
12%
China 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Qatar (draw refunded)
80%
China (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qatar at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

China away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qatar attack 2.17 + China defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.48

China attack 1.00 + Qatar defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Qatar scores more
59%
level
26%
China scores more
14%

Qatar at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Qatar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Qatar 1 – 0 China

Qatar beat China 1-0 in Asian Cup on January 22, 2024.

The match was played at Khalifa International Stadium in Ar-Rayyan.