Qatar 2–2 Bahrain: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Qatar

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bahrain

A. Alaaeldin 87'

M. Muntari 17'

I. Al Khatal 66'

K. Al Aswad 62' (pen)

9/3/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Al Thumama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Qatar36%

×Draw26%

Bahrain38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QatarExpected goals in this matchBahrain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.33

Qatar

1.30

Bahrain

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 11 away

1.33

creates per match

1.27

1.40

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Qatar

1.33

Bahrain

1.27

allows per match

Qatar

1.40

Bahrain

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qatar+0.00on par

Bahrain+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qatar ↓

Bahrain →

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Qatar or draw

62%

Qatar or Bahrain

74%

Draw or Bahrain

64%

Winning margin

Qatar wins by 2+

16%

Bahrain wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Qatar 1+ goals

73%

Qatar 2+ goals

37%

Qatar 3+ goals

14%

Bahrain 1+ goals

74%

Bahrain 2+ goals

38%

Bahrain 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Qatar (draw refunded)

49%

Bahrain (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Qatar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.40 · 30 matches

Bahrain away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Qatar attack 1.33 + Bahrain defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.30

Bahrain attack 1.27 + Qatar defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Qatar scores more

36%

level

26%

Bahrain scores more

38%

Bahrain at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bahrain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

M. Muntari

62'

K. Al AswadPenalty

66'

I. Al Khatal

87'

A. Alaaeldin

Qatar

Bahrain

⚽

Manager: Julen Lopetegui Argote

Qatar substitutes

8Mannai13Abdurisag17Guilherme18Brake19Gouda7Alaa3Ali2Miguel22Barsham23Madibo24Rawi16Khoukhi

Manager: Dragan Talajić

Bahrain substitutes

27Sharaf11Khatal5Shamsan19Ali13Saber15Shaikh14Jameel16Baqer17Bughammar29Zuhair6Eker24Fardan

Match Recap: Qatar vs Bahrain

Qatar and Bahrain drew 2-2 in Friendlies on September 3, 2025.

Goals: M. Muntari (17'), K. Al Aswad (62' pen), I. Al Khatal (66'), A. Alaaeldin (87').

The match was played at Al Thumama Stadium in Doha.

Qatar vs Bahrain — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Qatar vs Bahrain