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Qatar U23 vs Vietnam U23 — Friendlies 2025

Qatar U23
Qatar U23
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vietnam U23
Vietnam U23
Unknown 75'
10/9/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Qatar U2348%
×Draw28%
Vietnam U2323%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qatar U23
1.33
Vietnam U23
0.83

Qatar U23 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Qatar U23
1.17
Vietnam U23
0.50

allows per match

Qatar U23
1.17
Vietnam U23
1.50

finishing

Qatar U23+0.00on par
Vietnam U23+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qatar U23 ↓

Vietnam U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Qatar U23 or draw
77%
Qatar U23 or Vietnam U23
72%
Draw or Vietnam U23
52%

Winning margin

Qatar U23 wins by 2+
23%
Vietnam U23 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Qatar U23 1+ goals
74%
Qatar U23 2+ goals
38%
Qatar U23 3+ goals
15%
Vietnam U23 1+ goals
56%
Vietnam U23 2+ goals
20%
Vietnam U23 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Qatar U23 (draw refunded)
67%
Vietnam U23 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qatar U23 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Vietnam U23 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qatar U23 attack 1.17 + Vietnam U23 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Vietnam U23 attack 0.50 + Qatar U23 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Qatar U23 scores more
48%
level
28%
Vietnam U23 scores more
23%

Qatar U23 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Qatar U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'
Qatar
Vietnam
Ilídio Fernando Torres do Vale
Manager: Ilídio Fernando Torres do Vale
Sang-Sik Kim
Manager: Sang-Sik Kim

Friendlies: Qatar U23 1–0 Vietnam U23

Qatar U23 beat Vietnam U23 1-0 in Friendlies on October 9, 2025.

Goals: ? (75').