Qatar U23 1–2 Uzbekistan U23: Result & Stats

Qatar U23

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Uzbekistan U23

3/26/2024

Friendlies · World: Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Qatar U2332%

×Draw26%

Uzbekistan U2342%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qatar U23Expected goals in this matchUzbekistan U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.46

Qatar U23

1.23

Uzbekistan U23

1.46

Uzbekistan U23 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.13

creates per match

1.67

1.25

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Qatar U23

1.13

Uzbekistan U23

1.67

allows per match

Qatar U23

1.25

Uzbekistan U23

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qatar U23+0.00on par

Uzbekistan U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qatar U23 ↓

Uzbekistan U23 →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Qatar U23 or draw

58%

Qatar U23 or Uzbekistan U23

74%

Draw or Uzbekistan U23

68%

Winning margin

Qatar U23 wins by 2+

13%

Uzbekistan U23 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Qatar U23 1+ goals

71%

Qatar U23 2+ goals

35%

Qatar U23 3+ goals

13%

Uzbekistan U23 1+ goals

77%

Uzbekistan U23 2+ goals

43%

Uzbekistan U23 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Qatar U23 (draw refunded)

43%

Uzbekistan U23 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Qatar U23 at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Uzbekistan U23 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Qatar U23 attack 1.13 + Uzbekistan U23 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Uzbekistan U23 attack 1.67 + Qatar U23 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Qatar U23 scores more

32%

level

26%

Uzbekistan U23 scores more

42%

Uzbekistan U23 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Uzbekistan U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff