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Qatar U23 vs Saudi Arabia U23 — Friendlies 2025

Qatar U23
Qatar U23
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Saudi Arabia U23
Saudi Arabia U23
T. Al Khaibari 90'
11/18/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Qatar U2336%
×Draw27%
Saudi Arabia U2336%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qatar U23
1.25
Saudi Arabia U23
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Qatar U23
1.17
Saudi Arabia U23
1.33

allows per match

Qatar U23
1.17
Saudi Arabia U23
1.33

finishing

Qatar U23+0.00on par
Saudi Arabia U23+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qatar U23 ↓

Saudi Arabia U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Qatar U23 or draw
64%
Qatar U23 or Saudi Arabia U23
73%
Draw or Saudi Arabia U23
64%

Winning margin

Qatar U23 wins by 2+
16%
Saudi Arabia U23 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Qatar U23 1+ goals
71%
Qatar U23 2+ goals
36%
Qatar U23 3+ goals
13%
Saudi Arabia U23 1+ goals
71%
Saudi Arabia U23 2+ goals
36%
Saudi Arabia U23 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Qatar U23 (draw refunded)
50%
Saudi Arabia U23 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qatar U23 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Saudi Arabia U23 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qatar U23 attack 1.17 + Saudi Arabia U23 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Saudi Arabia U23 attack 1.33 + Qatar U23 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Qatar U23 scores more
36%
level
27%
Saudi Arabia U23 scores more
36%

Qatar U23 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Qatar U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'
T. Al Khaibari

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qatar U23 vs Saudi Arabia U23

Saudi Arabia U23 beat Qatar U23 1-0 in Friendlies on November 18, 2025.

Goals: T. Al Khaibari (90').