Qatar SC 2–1 Al Shamal: Result & Stats

Qatar SC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al Shamal

1/30/2025

League #305 · Round 14Suheim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Qatar SC41%

×Draw26%

Al Shamal34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qatar SCExpected goals in this matchAl Shamal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.27

Qatar SC

1.42

Al Shamal

1.27

Qatar SC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

1.67

creates per match

1.53

1.00

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Qatar SC

1.67

Al Shamal

1.53

allows per match

Qatar SC

1.00

Al Shamal

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qatar SC+0.00on par

Al Shamal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qatar SC ↓

Al Shamal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Qatar SC or draw

66%

Qatar SC or Al Shamal

74%

Draw or Al Shamal

59%

Winning margin

Qatar SC wins by 2+

19%

Al Shamal wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Qatar SC 1+ goals

76%

Qatar SC 2+ goals

41%

Qatar SC 3+ goals

17%

Al Shamal 1+ goals

72%

Al Shamal 2+ goals

36%

Al Shamal 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Qatar SC (draw refunded)

55%

Al Shamal (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qatar SC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Al Shamal away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qatar SC attack 1.67 + Al Shamal defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Al Shamal attack 1.53 + Qatar SC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Qatar SC scores more

41%

level

26%

Al Shamal scores more

34%

Qatar SC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Qatar SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff