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Qashqai Shiraz vs Shahrdari Astara — Azadegan League 2018

Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
5/22/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 31Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Qashqai Shiraz54%
×Draw29%
Shahrdari Astara17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qashqai Shiraz
1.32
Shahrdari Astara
0.60

Qashqai Shiraz creates 120% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 84 away

creates per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.93
Shahrdari Astara
0.40

allows per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.81
Shahrdari Astara
1.71

finishing

Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par
Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qashqai Shiraz ↓

Shahrdari Astara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Qashqai Shiraz or draw
83%
Qashqai Shiraz or Shahrdari Astara
71%
Draw or Shahrdari Astara
46%

Winning margin

Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
26%
Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
73%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
38%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
15%
Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
45%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
12%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
76%
Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qashqai Shiraz at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.93 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.32

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Qashqai Shiraz scores more
54%
level
29%
Shahrdari Astara scores more
17%

Qashqai Shiraz at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Qashqai Shiraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qashqai Shiraz vs Shahrdari Astara

Qashqai Shiraz and Shahrdari Astara drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.