Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Qashqai Shiraz vs Saipa — Azadegan League 2018

Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
FT
1 – 0
Saipa
Saipa
10/23/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 2Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Qashqai Shiraz37%
×Draw34%
Saipa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qashqai Shiraz
0.93
Saipa
0.78

Qashqai Shiraz creates 19% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 84 away

creates per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.93
Saipa
0.75

allows per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.81
Saipa
0.92

finishing

Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par
Saipa+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qashqai Shiraz ↓

Saipa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Qashqai Shiraz or draw
71%
Qashqai Shiraz or Saipa
66%
Draw or Saipa
63%

Winning margin

Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
14%
Saipa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
61%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
24%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
7%
Saipa 1+ goals
54%
Saipa 2+ goals
18%
Saipa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
56%
Saipa (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qashqai Shiraz at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Saipa away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.92 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.93 + Saipa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Saipa attack 0.75 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Qashqai Shiraz scores more
37%
level
34%
Saipa scores more
29%

Qashqai Shiraz at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Qashqai Shiraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Qashqai Shiraz 1–0 Saipa

Qashqai Shiraz beat Saipa 1-0 in Azadegan League on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.