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Qashqai Shiraz vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Azadegan League 2018

Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1/7/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 13Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Qashqai Shiraz39%
×Draw32%
Pars Jonoubi JAM29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qashqai Shiraz
1.03
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.85

Qashqai Shiraz creates 21% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 100 away

creates per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.93
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.89

allows per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.81
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.12

finishing

Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par
Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qashqai Shiraz ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Qashqai Shiraz or draw
71%
Qashqai Shiraz or Pars Jonoubi JAM
68%
Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM
61%

Winning margin

Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
15%
Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
64%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
28%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
9%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
57%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
21%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
57%
Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qashqai Shiraz at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.93 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.89 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Qashqai Shiraz scores more
39%
level
32%
Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
29%

Qashqai Shiraz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Qashqai Shiraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Qashqai Shiraz 1–2 Pars Jonoubi JAM

Pars Jonoubi JAM beat Qashqai Shiraz 2-1 in Azadegan League on January 7, 2022.

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.