Qashqai Shiraz 1–0 Oxin Alborz: Result & Stats

Qashqai Shiraz

FT

1 – 0

Oxin Alborz

1/26/2020

Azadegan League · Round 21Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Qashqai Shiraz48%

×Draw29%

Oxin Alborz23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qashqai ShirazExpected goals in this matchOxin Alborz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.77

Qashqai Shiraz

1.25

Oxin Alborz

0.77

Qashqai Shiraz creates 62% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 49 away

0.93

creates per match

0.73

0.81

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Qashqai Shiraz

0.93

Oxin Alborz

0.73

allows per match

Qashqai Shiraz

0.81

Oxin Alborz

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qashqai Shiraz ↓

Oxin Alborz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Qashqai Shiraz or draw

77%

Qashqai Shiraz or Oxin Alborz

71%

Draw or Oxin Alborz

52%

Winning margin

Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+

22%

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals

71%

Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals

36%

Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals

13%

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals

54%

Oxin Alborz 2+ goals

18%

Oxin Alborz 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)

68%

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qashqai Shiraz at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Oxin Alborz away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.93 + Oxin Alborz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Oxin Alborz attack 0.73 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Qashqai Shiraz scores more

48%

level

29%

Oxin Alborz scores more

23%

Qashqai Shiraz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Qashqai Shiraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff