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Qashqai Shiraz vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
FT
3 – 1
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
8/17/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 1Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Qashqai Shiraz32%
×Draw36%
Mes Kerman32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qashqai Shiraz
0.77
Mes Kerman
0.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 102 away

creates per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.86
Mes Kerman
0.75

allows per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.78
Mes Kerman
0.67

finishing

Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qashqai Shiraz ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–117%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Qashqai Shiraz or draw
68%
Qashqai Shiraz or Mes Kerman
64%
Draw or Mes Kerman
68%

Winning margin

Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
10%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
54%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
18%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
4%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
54%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
18%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
50%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qashqai Shiraz at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.67 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.86 + Mes Kerman defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Mes Kerman attack 0.75 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 32%?"

Qashqai Shiraz scores more
32%
level
36%
Mes Kerman scores more
32%

Qashqai Shiraz at 32% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 32% does not mean "Qashqai Shiraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Qashqai Shiraz 3–1 Mes Kerman

Qashqai Shiraz beat Mes Kerman 3-1 in Azadegan League on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.