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Mes Kerman vs Qashqai Shiraz — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
0 – 3
Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
5/24/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 25Shahid Bahonar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Mes Kerman49%
×Draw30%
Qashqai Shiraz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
1.22
Qashqai Shiraz
0.69

Mes Kerman creates 77% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 69 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.10
Qashqai Shiraz
0.84

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.53
Qashqai Shiraz
1.33

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Qashqai Shiraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
79%
Mes Kerman or Qashqai Shiraz
70%
Draw or Qashqai Shiraz
51%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
22%
Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
70%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
34%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
12%
Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
50%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
15%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
70%
Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.53 · 115 matches

Qashqai Shiraz away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.33 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.10 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.84 + Mes Kerman defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
49%
level
30%
Qashqai Shiraz scores more
21%

Mes Kerman at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Mes Kerman 0–3 Qashqai Shiraz

Qashqai Shiraz beat Mes Kerman 3-0 in Azadegan League on May 24, 2021.

The match was played at Shahid Bahonar Stadium in Kerman.