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Qashqai Shiraz vs Fajr Sepasi — Azadegan League 2018

Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
FT
0 – 2
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
9/15/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 5Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Qashqai Shiraz33%
×Draw33%
Fajr Sepasi34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qashqai Shiraz
0.90
Fajr Sepasi
0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 98 away

creates per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.93
Fajr Sepasi
1.03

allows per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.81
Fajr Sepasi
0.86

finishing

Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qashqai Shiraz ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Qashqai Shiraz or draw
66%
Qashqai Shiraz or Fajr Sepasi
67%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
67%

Winning margin

Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
12%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
59%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
23%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
6%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
60%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
23%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
49%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qashqai Shiraz at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.93 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Qashqai Shiraz scores more
33%
level
33%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
34%

Fajr Sepasi at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qashqai Shiraz vs Fajr Sepasi

Fajr Sepasi beat Qashqai Shiraz 2-0 in Azadegan League on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.