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Qashqai Shiraz vs Chooka Talesh — Azadegan League 2018

Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
FT
1 – 1
Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
3/2/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 16Grand Shiraz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Qashqai Shiraz52%
×Draw29%
Chooka Talesh20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qashqai Shiraz
1.33
Chooka Talesh
0.71

Qashqai Shiraz creates 87% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 33 away

creates per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.93
Chooka Talesh
0.61

allows per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.81
Chooka Talesh
1.73

finishing

Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par
Chooka Talesh+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qashqai Shiraz ↓

Chooka Talesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Qashqai Shiraz or draw
80%
Qashqai Shiraz or Chooka Talesh
71%
Draw or Chooka Talesh
48%

Winning margin

Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
25%
Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
74%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
38%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
15%
Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
51%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
16%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
72%
Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qashqai Shiraz at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Chooka Talesh away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.93 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.33

Chooka Talesh attack 0.61 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Qashqai Shiraz scores more
52%
level
29%
Chooka Talesh scores more
20%

Qashqai Shiraz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Qashqai Shiraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Qashqai Shiraz 1–1 Chooka Talesh

Qashqai Shiraz and Chooka Talesh drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on March 2, 2021.

The match was played at Grand Shiraz Stadium in Shiraz.