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Qashqai Shiraz vs Baderan Tehran — Azadegan League 2018

Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
FT
0 – 1
Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
10/5/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 7Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Qashqai Shiraz35%
×Draw30%
Baderan Tehran35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qashqai Shiraz
1.02
Baderan Tehran
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.93
Baderan Tehran
1.22

allows per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.81
Baderan Tehran
1.10

finishing

Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par
Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qashqai Shiraz ↓

Baderan Tehran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Qashqai Shiraz or draw
65%
Qashqai Shiraz or Baderan Tehran
70%
Draw or Baderan Tehran
65%

Winning margin

Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
13%
Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
64%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
27%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
8%
Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
64%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
27%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
50%
Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qashqai Shiraz at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Baderan Tehran away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.93 + Baderan Tehran defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Qashqai Shiraz scores more
35%
level
30%
Baderan Tehran scores more
35%

Qashqai Shiraz at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Qashqai Shiraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Qashqai Shiraz 0–1 Baderan Tehran

Baderan Tehran beat Qashqai Shiraz 1-0 in Azadegan League on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.