Qaradağ Lökbatan 0–1 Karvan: Result & Stats

Qaradağ Lökbatan

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Karvan

2/15/2024

Birinci Dasta · Round 14Lökbatan OIK stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Qaradağ Lökbatan36%

×Draw25%

Karvan39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qaradağ LökbatanExpected goals in this matchKarvan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.50

Qaradağ Lökbatan

1.44

Karvan

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 26 away

1.39

creates per match

1.88

1.13

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Qaradağ Lökbatan

1.39

Karvan

1.88

allows per match

Qaradağ Lökbatan

1.13

Karvan

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qaradağ Lökbatan+0.00on par

Karvan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qaradağ Lökbatan ↓

Karvan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Qaradağ Lökbatan or draw

61%

Qaradağ Lökbatan or Karvan

75%

Draw or Karvan

64%

Winning margin

Qaradağ Lökbatan wins by 2+

17%

Karvan wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Qaradağ Lökbatan 1+ goals

76%

Qaradağ Lökbatan 2+ goals

42%

Qaradağ Lökbatan 3+ goals

18%

Karvan 1+ goals

78%

Karvan 2+ goals

44%

Karvan 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Qaradağ Lökbatan (draw refunded)

48%

Karvan (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qaradağ Lökbatan at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.13 · 76 matches

Karvan away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qaradağ Lökbatan attack 1.39 + Karvan defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Karvan attack 1.88 + Qaradağ Lökbatan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Qaradağ Lökbatan scores more

36%

level

25%

Karvan scores more

39%

Karvan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Karvan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff