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Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK — Premyer Liqa 2019

Qarabag
Qarabag
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
1/17/2025Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 19Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Qarabag67%
×Draw20%
Şamaxı FK13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qarabag
2.06
Şamaxı FK
0.79

Qarabag creates 161% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 90 away

creates per match

Qarabag
2.55
Şamaxı FK
0.94

allows per match

Qarabag
0.64
Şamaxı FK
1.57

finishing

Qarabag+0.00on par
Şamaxı FK+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qarabag ↓

Şamaxı FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Qarabag or draw
87%
Qarabag or Şamaxı FK
80%
Draw or Şamaxı FK
33%

Winning margin

Qarabag wins by 2+
42%
Şamaxı FK wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Qarabag 1+ goals
87%
Qarabag 2+ goals
61%
Qarabag 3+ goals
34%
Şamaxı FK 1+ goals
55%
Şamaxı FK 2+ goals
19%
Şamaxı FK 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Qarabag (draw refunded)
83%
Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qarabag at home — creates 2.55, concedes 0.64 · 112 matches

Şamaxı FK away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qarabag attack 2.55 + Şamaxı FK defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.06

Şamaxı FK attack 0.94 + Qarabag defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Qarabag scores more
67%
level
20%
Şamaxı FK scores more
13%

Qarabag at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK

Qarabag beat Şamaxı FK 3-2 in Premyer Liqa on January 17, 2025.

The match was played at Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu in Baku.