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Qarabag vs Sabah FA — Premyer Liqa 2019

Qarabag
Qarabag
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
3/1/2026Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 22Tofiq Bahramov Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Qarabag56%
×Draw23%
Sabah FA22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qarabag
1.86
Sabah FA
1.07

Qarabag creates 74% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 109 away

creates per match

Qarabag
2.55
Sabah FA
1.51

allows per match

Qarabag
0.64
Sabah FA
1.17

finishing

Qarabag+0.00on par
Sabah FA+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qarabag ↓

Sabah FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Qarabag or draw
78%
Qarabag or Sabah FA
77%
Draw or Sabah FA
44%

Winning margin

Qarabag wins by 2+
32%
Sabah FA wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Qarabag 1+ goals
84%
Qarabag 2+ goals
55%
Qarabag 3+ goals
28%
Sabah FA 1+ goals
66%
Sabah FA 2+ goals
29%
Sabah FA 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Qarabag (draw refunded)
72%
Sabah FA (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qarabag at home — creates 2.55, concedes 0.64 · 112 matches

Sabah FA away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qarabag attack 2.55 + Sabah FA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.86

Sabah FA attack 1.51 + Qarabag defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Qarabag scores more
56%
level
23%
Sabah FA scores more
22%

Qarabag at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premyer Liqa: Qarabag 3–3 Sabah FA

Qarabag and Sabah FA drew 3-3 in Premyer Liqa on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium in Baku.