Qarabag 5–0 Neftchi: Result & Stats

Qarabag

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Neftchi

N. Akhundzade 70'

M. Jankovic 29', 3'

J. Montiel 10'

Leandro Andrade 8'

1/12/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Qarabag49%

×Draw19%

Neftchi32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QarabagExpected goals in this matchNeftchi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

2.00

Qarabag

2.48

Neftchi

2.00

Qarabag creates 24% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

3.33

creates per match

1.00

3.00

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Qarabag

3.33

Neftchi

1.00

allows per match

Qarabag

3.00

Neftchi

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qarabag+0.00on par

Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qarabag ↓

Neftchi →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Qarabag or draw

68%

Qarabag or Neftchi

81%

Draw or Neftchi

51%

Winning margin

Qarabag wins by 2+

30%

Neftchi wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Qarabag 1+ goals

92%

Qarabag 2+ goals

70%

Qarabag 3+ goals

44%

Neftchi 1+ goals

86%

Neftchi 2+ goals

59%

Neftchi 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Qarabag (draw refunded)

60%

Neftchi (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Qarabag at home — creates 3.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Neftchi away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Qarabag attack 3.33 + Neftchi defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.48

Neftchi attack 1.00 + Qarabag defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Qarabag scores more

49%

level

19%

Neftchi scores more

32%

Qarabag at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

29'

70'

Qarabag

Neftchi

⚽2

⚽

⚽

Manager: Qurban Qurbanov

Qarabag substitutes

97Buntic89Ramazanov3Mmaee55Huseynov30Huseynov26Qurbanli24Bashirov18Bolt6Chriso11Addai21Kashchuk7Akhundzade77Sheydayev

Manager: Vitaliy Levchenko

Neftchi substitutes

45TuraevRasuljonovAbduganiyevMuratovErimbetov23DjokicTukhsanov17SokhibzhonovBakhodirkhonov34Sayfiev4Ciger32MarusicRatinho